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It’s official – the Steelers are a lock to win


From: ESPN

AccuScore doesn’t have much confidence in the New England Patriots against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Of the 14 games this week, AccuScore gives only the Dallas Cowboys (14.3 percent), Carolina Panthers (23.6 percent), St. Louis Rams (28.6 percent), Washington Redskins (35.6 percent) and Cincinnati Bengals (36.1 percent) less chance of winning after simulating each matchup 10,000 times.

You won’t often see the Patriots lumped with those teams this year.

The Patriots, after a sloppy loss to the Cleveland Browns, lose 59.2 percent of the time by the average score of a field to the Steelers in AccuScore’s simulations.

The Steelers have the NFL’s top-rated run defense, holding teams to an average of 58.2 yards a game. If the Patriots run for less than 70 yards, then their chances of victory dwindle to 29 percent. But if the Patriots can average 4.5 yards a carry, then their chances climb to 60 percent.

Matt Loede has been in the sports media for over 16 years, with experience covering the MLB, NBA, and NFL. On Sunday’s during football season, you can hear Matt on national networks like Fox Sports Radio, Associated Press, and others. Born and raised in Cleveland Ohio, Matt studies and talks football inside and out, and is anxious to share his thoughts and comments with readers on a daily basis.

7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. mark

    November 11, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    I’ll still wait and see what happens on the field! Even though I do believe the Steelers will win and are the better team overall, as long as Tom Brady is on the field I take nothing for granted. Especially when a computer is telling me the outcome! If that were the case, how many people would be making a fortune taking this “concrete logic” to the bank? Its all in fun and I understand that, but when the Steelers play the Patriots, I worry!

    • Curt

      November 11, 2010 at 5:56 pm

      Mark I agree I’m worried, Tom Brady has owned the Steelers for the last 9 years. I,m hoping we don’t get a big lead in the fourth quater and then have our defense play that crappy prevent like they did against cincy, you give Brady time to throw he is the most dangerous QB out there. Steelers have to flush him out of that comfy pocket and keep him on the run.

  2. DrGeorge

    November 12, 2010 at 10:30 am

    The Patriots can’t run against the Steelers, but they don’t need to. The spread offense allows them to dink and dunk against a LeBeau defense that willingly surrenders the short completions in the flat to prevent the bomb. This is a clash of strategies, and with the injuries to the Steelers D, Brady’s spread attack is likely to wear down our older guys by game’s end. The solution is to use younger faster guys on D, but LeBeau is not likely to sacrifice veteran leadership for inexperienced speed, and Wes Welker is likely to have a big game. That means the game hinges on Ben’s arm and outscoring New England at a time when our offensive line is banged up and weak in pass protection and mediocre in blocking for our running game. The injuries negate our homefield advantage. I still favor the Steelers, but narrowly. Turnovers and special team’s play will probably determine the outcome of this one. My guess: Steelers 24 – Patriots 21.

    • mark

      November 12, 2010 at 2:00 pm

      DrGeorge, I couldnt agree more. The Pats use the dink/dunk like a running game regardless of who the opponent is. This will NOT change this weekend. I can see a shoot-out, but I want to have more faith in our defense than thinking they may surrender more than 20 points.If the Steelers get Mendenhll going, the need for the shoot-out goes away. Solid running on the Steelers part keeps Brady/Welker playing catch-up and less time to do it. Steelers should put up 24 to 30 points on the Pats and that should be enough against anyone this season. One thing that may be a huge difference in the game is the possibility that Heath Miller does NOT play. His knee is acting up and I hear he didnt practice Thrs. If he doesnt see the field Friday, he isnt likely to play and that really hurts the Steeler offense. His blocking and BIG play ability will be felt. They cant afford to be short-handed when they play the Pats. Its bad enough to be lean on the O-ine, but losing Miller can be a disaster.

      • DrGeorge

        November 12, 2010 at 6:49 pm

        Greetings, Mark. Yes, we see things pretty much the same, as usual. In my original note, I forgot that Redman and Moore had concussions in the last game (crimping our ground game); ditto Allen on special teams. I don’t know if any of the three will be available. Hopefully, Dwyer can step up for Redman. If Miller is down, that would be a major loss, as you described. I hadn’t heard about him. When the O-line is so badly injured that Tomlin is considering Spaeth at offensive Tackle, it suggests how thin we really are. This game with the Pats is going to be brutal and exhausting, win or lose, and it could decide the outcome of the games ahead, particularly if there are more injuries to the O-line or to Ben.

        In short, with our O-line woes and RB injuries, I don’t think we will have a ‘solid running game’ available or the ability to protect Ben long enough to put up 30 in a shoot out. Worse, the Patriot passing game matches up perfectly against the weaknesses in our defensive secondary, so expecting our D to hold the Pats under 20 seems unrealistic. I hope you’re right, Mark, of course, but this one has all the makings of a white knuckle ride that will be decided by the special teams and turnovers.

        This is one of those games when discretion may be wiser than valor: meaning, Tomlin might consider resting the wounded and try to squeak out a win using back ups. If we lose, we’re still tied with Baltimore; if we win, our key wounded are healed and available for the rest of the season. But if we play our injured key players and lose one or two of them for the year, that could be the end of the season for the whole team. I know this option would not be popular with the macho crowd, but the object is not to beat the Pats at all costs, but to get into the playoffs in good health. When you have to play hurt, you must adapt your strategy to suit the hand your dealt.

        • mark

          November 13, 2010 at 8:03 am

          Agreed, DrGeorge. I just have this funny feeling the Steeler D is going to play BIG and the offense will move the ball against the suddenly mortal Patriots. If the Steelers strugge offensively, injuries or not, this blog will be lit-up Monday morning with the “FIRE ARIANS” fans. If the Browns and Dolphins can put up big numbers on the Patriots, this Steeler team should as well. Watch, I willbe way off and the Steelers will win 13-10!!! Ill take a win regardless of the score. ALso, I dont see Tomlin trying to sneak out a win using my back-ups. My gut tells me that whoever is capable to play, will play. Thats not a stretch on my part, I just think that being 6-2 last year and then dropping 5 in a row is fresh in memories. Steelers might need a win to not only keep 1st place, but show that last year was an abbarition(sp?)

          • mark

            November 13, 2010 at 8:05 am

            sorry for any spelling errors in my posts! My keyboard is skipping letters and I hate re-reading what I already wrote!

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