How the AFC Playoff Picture Shapes Up

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-1) – Clinched top seed in AFC.
Next week: at Buffalo

2. San Diego Chargers (12-3) – Clinched No. 2 seed and first-round playoff bye with win at Tennessee.
Next week: vs. Washington

3. New England Patriots (10-5) – Clinched AFC East title with win vs. Jacksonville. Lead Bengals based on better strength of victory (Patriots have beaten teams with combined 65-85 record; Bengals have beaten teams that are a combined 60-89).
Next week: at Houston

4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) – Clinched AFC North title with win vs. Kansas City.
Next week: at Jets

5. New York Jets (8-7) – Currently No. 5 seed based on better conference record than Houston (6-5 to 5-6) and better record in common games (3-1) than Denver (2-2) and Baltimore (0-4). Would clinch No. 5 seed with win. Eliminated with loss.
Next week: vs. Cincinnati

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) – Currently No. 6 seed because of better division record than Pittsburgh (3-3 to 2-4), better conference record than Houston (6-5 to 5-6) and head-to-head victory vs. Denver. Would clinch No. 5 seed with win and New York loss. Would clinch No. 6 seed with win and New York win. Eliminated with loss.
Next week: at Oakland

7. Denver Broncos (8-7) – Currently No. 7 seed due to better conference record than Houston (6-5 to 5-6). Would clinch No. 5 seed with New York loss and Baltimore loss and either Pittsburgh loss or both Denver win and Houston win. Would clinch No. 6 seed with win and 1) New York loss or Baltimore loss (not both), and 2) Pittsburgh and/or Houston loss. Would clinch No. 6 seed with loss and either 1) New York loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss and Miami loss and Jacksonville loss, or 2) Pittsburgh loss and losses by three of the following: New York, Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville. Eliminated with 1) Jets win and Ravens win, or 2) Steelers win and Texans loss and either Jets win or Ravens win. Eliminated with loss and 1) Pittsburgh win and New York win or Baltimore win or Houston win or Jacksonville win, or 2) Miami win and wins by at least two of the following: New York, Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville.
Next week: vs. Kansas City

8. Houston Texans (8-7) – Currently 8th in AFC because of better record than Pittsburgh in common games (3-1 to 1-3). Would clinch No. 5 seed with win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss. Would clinch No. 6 seed with win and losses by two of the following: New York, Baltimore, Denver. Eliminated with loss or wins by at least two of the following: New York, Baltimore, Denver.
Next week: vs. New England

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) – Would clinch No. 5 seed with win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Houston loss. Would clinch No. 6 seed with win and either 1) New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston win, or 2) Houston loss and either New York loss or Baltimore loss. Eliminated with loss or 1) New York and Baltimore wins, or 2) Houston win and New York, Baltimore or Denver win.
Next week: at Miami

10. Miami Dolphins (7-8) – Currently No. 10 seed based on head-to-head win over Jacksonville but would lose multiple-team 8-8 ties with Jacksonville because of worse conference record (7-5 to 6-6). Would be No. 6 seed with win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston loss and Jacksonville loss. Eliminated with loss/tie or New York win/tie or Baltimore win/tie or Denver win/tie or Houston win/tie or Jacksonville win.
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh

11. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) – Would win all 8-8 ties because of 7-5 conference record. Would be No. 5 seed with win and New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston loss and Pittsburgh loss. Would be No. 6 seed with win and 1) New York loss and Baltimore loss and Denver loss and Houston loss and Miami loss, or 2) Pittsburgh loss and loss by exactly one of the following: New York, Baltimore, Denver, Houston. Eliminated with loss or wins by at least two of the following: New York, Baltimore, Denver, Houston.
Next week: at Cleveland